TV is dead. Isn't it?

Traditional network television is dead isn’t it? Well not exactly dead but under tremendous pressure as the old audiences of yesteryear fragment endlessly and new contenders edge their way forward - everything from online and on-demand programming to mobile TV.

Television will obviously survive in some form but what chance do you give the once all-powerful network companies? And surely it’s only a matter of time before individual programmes supersede channel brands.

Does anyone actually sit down to watch channels any more as opposed to individual programmes? Soon the limitless profusion of programmes available online will be delivered effortlessly and seamlessly straight to the television screen.

Anyone who wants pessimistic facts and figures about the television business doesn’t have to look far.    
Last year despite the draw of the Beijing Olympics and the historic Presidential election campaign the big four US broadcast networks – ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox – lost no less than 6 per cent of their primetime audience.

They saw their collective primetime share drop to a new record low of 32.7 per cent as the share of advertising-supported cable rose to within a whisker of 60 per cent.

On top of the loss in viewing share, the equivalent of a city the size of Orlando, Florida, there’s the small matter of the recession. It may be cyclical rather than structural but it is bad news all the same.

In the UK regulators and government ministers are clearly of the view that the model for commercial public service broadcasting is breaking, if not actually broken.

The emerging solution, vaguely expressed so far, is to try to create a new commercial public service entity with Channel 4 at its heart. Then maybe you involve BBC Worldwide, the commercial arm of the Corporation, in an imaginative way. If all else fails, then shoehorn Channel 4 into a merger with the wholly commercial Five – somehow.

For now the likely “solutions” matter less than the perceived severity of the problem.

Of course things are obviously bad but are they really that bad?

The evidence certainly does not all go in the same direction and a perfectly respectable case can be made for the long-term survival of traditional television. In the midst of the maelstrom of undifferentiated content, it might even stand out and flourish.

The recession will obviously eat into advertising revenues but viewing figures should rise as consumers seek to economise and entertain themselves at home.

Deloitte, the international consultants, in their annual technology, media and telecommunications predictions actually says that “the year ahead could prove to be a renaissance for the small screen.”

Even before the end of last year viewing levels were already rising in a number of developed markets.

In fact Thinkbox, the lobbying body for commercial television in the UK, last month produced audience research showing that the average person watched 16 hours 18 minutes a week of broadcast television last year. This represented an increase of 48 minutes compared with 2007.

Tess Alps, Thinkbox chief executive, argues that television remains people’s favourite form of entertainment whatever the technology involved. “The figures show that people rely on channels and schedules  to help them find the TV they want to watch,” Alps insists.

Apart from the recessionary effect several factors have been helping audiences to grow.

They include the move from existing analogue to multi-channel digital offering viewers more choice, the growing popularity of personal video recorders allowing viewers to watch their favourite programmes when they want to see them, and the rise of “event” television. This can take the form of talent or other forms of participation shows and major live sports competitions.

Even pay-TV operators such as BSkyB, with monthly subscriptions as high as £50, may benefit from the recessionary effect, at least in homes where jobs have not been lost. The monthly subscription may stack up well financially in consumer’s mind compared with other forms of leisure or entertainment – such as the cost of a meal for two in a mediocre restaurant.

At the same time some forms of new media have not exactly been setting the world alight. Last year was supposed to have been the year that mobile television made its great breakthrough boosted by huge sporting events such as the Olympics. While two-thirds of the world’s population watched the Olympics on television there was little appetite to view on tiny mobile screens. Some analysts believe that this year mobile television will fail to reach the bottom range of forecasts - a global audience of 30 million – and that more channels will close than open.

The rise of high definition and flat screen displays also tends to pull viewers back into the living room to watch traditional television.

Need any more convincing that television isn’t dead yet?

How about NBC’s 100 million audience for the Super Bowl with every single one of the 69 advertising slots sold at $3 million a pop.

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